Replacement-Migration

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Markt in Mulhouse/Elsass am 12. April 2014

Replacement-Migration – Ersetzungsmigration

Replacement Migration – Lesenswertes von den Vereinten Nationen
… Demnach stecken die Vereinten Nationen hinter der Massenmigration nach Europa, und zwar mit dem Ziel, die alternden und schrumpfenden Gesellschaften Europa zu ersetzen. Man braucht nicht viel Phantasie, dass in der Folge dessen ein Haufen Schergen und Agenten losgezogen sind, um Migration zu betreiben, koste es, was es wolle, mit allen Mitteln.
Beachtlich der Titel: Replacement Migration. Und das aus dem Jahr 2000. Hatte man nicht jeden als Nazi, Rechtsradikalen, Verschwörungstheoretiker, Populisten an die Wand genagelt, der von „Bevölkerungsaustausch“ sprach?

Seite 110: TABLE A.4. GERMANY, REPLACEMENT MIGRATION SCENARIOS
Man plant bis ins Jahr 2050, was ohne Migration passiert und wieviel Migration jeweils erforderlich ist, um
– die Bevölkerung konstant groß zu halten
– die Altersgruppe der 15 bis 64-Jährigen konstant zu halten
– das Zahlenverhältnis derer im Alter zwischen 15 und 64 zu denen ab 65 und älter konstant zu halten
Für den dritten Fall bräuchten wir nach dieser Rechnung derzeit über 3 Millionen Zuwanderer im Jahr, ab 2025 über 5 Millionen und ab 2030 sogar über 6 Millionen, wenn ein Verhältnis von Zahlern zu Rentnern von 4,41 halten will.
Es würde erklären, warum man gerade das Rentenalter hochschieben will, weil man die Zuwandererzahlen, die nach dieser Rechnung erforderlich wären, nicht erreicht, wir sind ja eher so bei 2,6 Millionen. Das sieht aus, als würde man exakt nach diesen Tabellen arbeiten (wollen), und dazu die Bevölkerung einfach nur scham- und hemmungslos anlügen.

Und man könnte auf den Gedanken kommen, dass so mancher Politiker, vor allem Grüne mit seltsamem Lebenslauf, genau zu diesem Zweck gemacht und installiert wurden. Dabei ist das höchstens eine Milchmädchenrechnung, denn man kann nicht einfach irgendwelche Leute von irgendwoher nach Europa schaufeln und dann erwarten, dass die hier brav arbeiten und Sozialabgaben zahlen. Das wird so nicht funktionieren. Eine schrumpfende Gesellschaft dagegen hätte noch für einige Zeit funktioniert.
Man kann natürlich daraus auf den Gedanken kommen, gerade weil das schon von 2000 war, ob der Krieg in Syrien nicht als eine Art Beschaffungsmaßnahme angezettelt war. …
… Alles vom 23.7.2024 bitte lesen auf
https://www.danisch.de/blog/2024/07/23/replacement-migration/
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Replacement Migration
Is it A Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations
… Germany: Seite 37 -41

Past trends
While the total fertility rate increased steadily, from 2.16 to 2.49 children per woman, between 1950-1955 and 1960-1965, Germany experienced a continuous decline afterwards, to 1.30 children per woman in 1990-1995. As in other countries in Western Europe, life expectancy increased during the entire period between 1950 and 1995. It reached 76 years for both sexes during the interval of 1990-1995, up from 67.5 years for 1950-1955. One of the results of increased life expectancy and low fertility rates is the process of population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 65 years or older increased from 9.7 per cent in 1950 to 15.5 per cent in 1995. The potential support ratio declined from 6.9 persons aged 15-64 years for one person aged 65 years or over in 1950 to 4.4 persons in 1995.

Scenario I
Scenario I, the medium variant of the United Nations 1998 Revision, assumes a net total of 11.4 million migrants between 1995 and 2050. For the years 1995-2005 it estimates 240,000 migrants per year and for the period between 2005 and 2050 a net migration of 200,000 persons per annum. For the overall population of Germany the medium variant projects an increase from 81.7 million in 1995 to 82.4 million in 2005. Thereafter, the population would continuously decline to 73.3 million in 2050 (The results of the 1998 United Nations projections are shown in the annex tables). The population aged 15-64 years would slightly increase from 55.8 million in 1995 to 56.0 million in 2000; between 2000 and 2050 it would continuously decrease to 42.7 million. The share of the elderly (65 years and above) would increase from 12.6 million in 1995 (15.5 per cent) to 20.8 million in 2050 (28.4 per cent). Consequently, the potential support ratio would be halved, decreasing from 4.4 in 1995 to 2.1 in 2050.

Scenario II
Scenario II is based on the fertility and mortality assumptions of the medium variant of the 1998 Revision of the United Nations, but without any migration to Germany after 1995. Compared to scenario I, the total population would decrease much faster, from 81.7 million in 1995 to 58.8 million in 2050, a 28 per cent decrease for the total population. The population aged 15-64 years would decrease even faster:
from 55.8 million to 32.7 million, a 41 per cent loss. In the absence of any migration, the population aged 65 or older would increase to 18.7 million by the year 2050. As a result, the potential support ratio in scenario II would decrease from 4.4 in 1995 to 1.8 in 2050.
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Scenario III
Scenario III assumes a constant total population between 1995 and 2050 (81.7 million). Keeping the population at such a level would require substantially higher immigration to Germany than anticipated by the United Nations 1998 Revision. Between 1995-2050, a total of 17.8 million net migrants would be needed, an average of 324,000 per year. Such a migration flow would result in a population 15-64 of 48.4 million, and the group of 65 years or older would increase to 21.4 million in 2050. The potential support ratio would decline from 4.4 to 2.3 in 2050. In 2050, out of a population of 82 million people, 23 million (28 per cent) would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants.

Scenario IV
Scenario IV keeps the size of the population aged 15-64 years constant at the 1995 level of 55.8 million until the year 2050. This would require a total of 25.2 million migrants between 1995 and 2050, an average of 458,000 per year. The total population of Germany would increase to 92 million in 2050, of which 33 million (36 per cent) would be post-1995 migrants and their descendants. The potential support ratio would be 2.4 in 2050.

Scenario V
Scenario V keeps the potential support ratio constant at its 1995 level of 4.4 until 2050. The total of immigrants needed between 1995 and 2050 to keep this ratio constant would be 188.5 million, which is an average of 3.4 million migrants per year. In 2050 the total population would be 299 million, of which 80 per cent would be post-1995 migrants and their descendants.

Discussion
Net migration in the years 1990-1992 was close to 680,000 individuals per annum. That number decreased between 1993-1998 to about 270,000 persons per year. The net numbers of migrants needed to keep the total population constant (324,000 per year), or to keep the age group 15-64 year constant (458,000 per year) are within the range of the experience of the past decade. However, to maintain the current potential support ratio of 4.4 would require an influx of 3.4 million migrants per year. This number would be more than ten times the yearly amount of migrants entering Germany during 1993-1998.
Figure IV.6 shows, for scenarios I, II, III and IV, the population of Germany in 2050, indicating the share that are post-1995 migrants and their descendants. By the end of 1997, foreigners accounted for almost 9 per cent of the total population in Germany. This should be compared to the proportion by the year 2050 of the post-1995 migrants and their descendants: 20 per cent in scenario I; 28 per cent in scenario III; 36 per cent in scenario IV; and 80 per cent in scenario V.
In absence of migration, the figures show that it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of the working-age to about 77 years in order to obtain in 2050 the same potential support ratio observed in 1995 in Germany, i.e. 4.4 persons of working-age per each older person past working-age.
…
https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf